Developing collaborative research programmes on the consequences of low fertility in developing countries

Low fertility or below replacement level fertility (2 children/woman) is an emerging demographic phenomena in South Asia (SA). Southern Indian states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh have already reached below replacement level fertility in the last 1-2 decades. The rest of India is likely to follow this path; projected fertility indicates that India as a whole will achieve below replacement level fertility within the next two decades.

Given high fertility in the past, the focus of population research in SA has been on high fertility and family planning. The emerging low fertility, thus, calls for a paradigm shift in population research to address this issue. As the determinants and consequences of low fertility in developed countries are different from developing countries, there is very limited scope to learn from the experiences of the developed world. Comprehensive research programmes to study low fertility in a developing country context are lacking. Low fertility in developing countries in South Asia, such as India, is likely to generate significant social and economic impact on: ageing and old age support; family-systems; marriage; migration; intra- household gender relations; one child couples and no child couples; family planning and early age sterilisation; employment and education of women. We aim to explore these issues by understanding the consequences of low fertility on individuals, family, and the wider community. These themes are within the funding remit of major funders (e.g. ESRC, Indian Council of Social Science Research - ICSSR, British Academy etc.). Research Development Fund – 2013 Competition (Round 1) Application Form 3

Objectives:
The objective of this project is to bring together leading researchers in the field from India and the UK to develop research projects to study consequences of low fertility that can be submitted to external funding (ESRC, ICSSR or EU). The project will also produce two research papers for publication using secondary data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and primary data collected from Kerala state.

Activities:
1.Small Group Workshops (SGWs) One SGW will be held in Mumbai (at IIPS organised by Professor Kumar and Dr Singh) and another in CDS Trivandrum (organised by Professor Rajan). Each SGW will have 6-8 experts and will meet for three days (starting with each member presenting their ideas for research and paper in low fertility theme) followed by two days for synthesising the discussions by PA and co-ordinator. Each SGW will develop one outline proposal and one paper outline including objectives, analysis strategy and preliminary analysis of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and/or District Level Household Survey (DLHS). The proposed themes of the papers are: (1) low fertility, ageing and old age support within families (2) one child and no child families. Using STATA for MLwin multilevel modelling of secondary data will be done at the SGW by the PA and CoA (Liz) to study: (1) factors associated with low fertility and old age support (2) characterises and determinants of one child and no child families. In addition to modelling, demographic methods will be employed to understand ageing under various fertility regimes. Based on the findings of preliminary results from secondary data SGWs will discuss the format of qualitative data to be collected from households in Kerala for use in papers and grant applications (see below).

2. Fieldwork in Kerala
Primary data will be collected from 25 households from one village using a household case-study approach. This will enable us to use multiple data collection strategies, such as structured interviews with head of the household, in-depth interviews with household members and observation of household interactions to elicit data on old age support and attitudes towards one child and no child families. The objective is to collect primary data to substantiate/validate findings from secondary data analysis. The information gathered through case studies include, among others, living arrangements of the elderly; income and economic support from children- sons and daughters; decision making roles and status of the elderly in the family; relationship with grand children; contribution of the elderly to the household chores.

Information will also be gathered about reasons for having one child and no child. Household survey data will be analysed statistically to explore association between various aspects of old age support and aspects of fertility. Transcribed qualitative data will be analysed for themes that have been already identified from literature, secondary data and those emerged from the interviews using NVivo software.

3. Post SGW meeting in Portsmouth
Upon return from fieldwork, the PA and CoA (Portsmouth based) will organise a one-day meeting at Portsmouth (September 2013) with Professor Chris Wilson and other potential UK academics from Oxford and Southampton universities, to further explore collaboration and funding to increase the chances of success with grant applications.

Outcomes:
SGWs co-ordinators, Professor Wilson, Dr Twigg and Dr Pallikadavath will finalise the proposals and papers. The final outcomes of the project will be:
1. At least two submitted (to ESRC, ICSSR, EU) medium size grant application (or one large project byintegrating these two) by March 2014.
2. At least two papers submitted for publication by May, 2014.