Forecasting Lava Flow Field Evolution to mitigate lava invasion hazards

This project investigated the factors promoting lava levee breaching through field data, analogue models and rock mechanics.

Lava flows are a persistent threat to populations living close to effusive volcanoes. Identifying the patterns of movement of lava flows, specially changes on original directions of flows, is key for lava flow hazard assessment. In this project we investigated the conditions under which lava flow levees breach and produce new flows.

4 modes of levee breaching were defined for the first time. Topography was found to be a key factor in the location of breaches as well as effusion rate. Deformation occurred before a breach, hence monitoring areas displaying deformation should be a priority for timely warning to vulnerable areas and populations.