中美贸易摩擦对中国水产品国际贸易水平的影响测度*: The measurement of the impact of China-US trade friction on China's international trade of aquatic products

Based on MGM ( 1，3) ，a multivariate gray prediction model，this article used the method of counterfactual reasoning to calculate the overall impact of China－US trade friction on China's aquatic product import and export level. The results show that this round of China－US trade friction has no negative impact on the import level of China's aquatic products. Ｒesponded well to this round of China－ US trade friction，the import structure of China's aquatic products has been in the stage of transformation and upgrading. China's aquatic product import has an obvious substitution effect on the trade space pattern. The existing diversified import channels of aquatic products in China can not only offset but way exceed the potential negative effects of this round of China－US trade friction. Influenced by the high dependence of China's aquatic products export on the market of U. S. ，the outbreak of this round of China－US trade friction has caused a slight negative impact on the export volume and value of China's aquatic products. In order to realize the high－quality and safe development of China's international trade in aquatic products，it is necessary to optimize the pattern of international trade in aquatic products and adjust the export market of aquatic products appropriately during “the 14th Five － Year Plan” period. Meanwhile，the production and processing structure of aquatic products should be adjusted to ensure the continuous improvement of export competitiveness of aquatic products. In addition，it is urgent to strengthen the work of aquatic product quality inspection and epidemic prevention，and improve the safety supervision level of the cold chain logistics operation system.