TY - JOUR
T1 - A hybrid and integrated approach to evaluate and prevent disasters
AU - Ishizaka, Alessio
AU - Labib, Ashraf
N1 - This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Journal of the Operational Research Society (JORS). The definitive publisher-authenticated version "A hybrid and integrated approach to evaluate and prevent disasters", 2014, Journal of the Operational Research Society (JORS), 65(10), pp.1475-1489, ISSN: 0160-5682, DOI: 10.1057/jors.2013.59, is available online at: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v65/n10/abs/jors201359a.html
PY - 2014/10
Y1 - 2014/10
N2 - Disasters are, by their nature, very complex phenomena. Their modelling using a systematic and logical methodology can help us identify their root causes and may facilitate in allocating appropriate resources to prevent such situations. Although techniques exist to model such phenomena, a single off-the-shelf model is insufficient to provide an effective and realistic analysis to prevent disasters due to its inherent assumptions. In order to overcome these limitations of single methods, this article proposes a hybrid model of four methods to optimise a safety investment. First, a hierarchy is constructed with a problem structuring approach. Second, a new graphical representation, the Crisis Tree Analysis, is introduced to visualise how a combination of basic events may lead to a disaster. Third, the criticality of each event is assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, a mathematical programming model is proposed to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds in order to avoid the disaster. A case study of the Bhopal disaster is used to illustrate the proposed four-step method.
AB - Disasters are, by their nature, very complex phenomena. Their modelling using a systematic and logical methodology can help us identify their root causes and may facilitate in allocating appropriate resources to prevent such situations. Although techniques exist to model such phenomena, a single off-the-shelf model is insufficient to provide an effective and realistic analysis to prevent disasters due to its inherent assumptions. In order to overcome these limitations of single methods, this article proposes a hybrid model of four methods to optimise a safety investment. First, a hierarchy is constructed with a problem structuring approach. Second, a new graphical representation, the Crisis Tree Analysis, is introduced to visualise how a combination of basic events may lead to a disaster. Third, the criticality of each event is assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, a mathematical programming model is proposed to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds in order to avoid the disaster. A case study of the Bhopal disaster is used to illustrate the proposed four-step method.
KW - analytic hierarchy process
KW - crisis tree analysis
KW - mathematical programming
KW - risk management
KW - Bhopal gas disaster
U2 - 10.1057/jors.2013.59
DO - 10.1057/jors.2013.59
M3 - Article
SN - 0160-5682
VL - 65
SP - 1475
EP - 1489
JO - Journal of the Operational Research Society
JF - Journal of the Operational Research Society
IS - 10
ER -