A methodology to plan resilient urban development

Urban resilience connotes the capability of cities to cope with change and uncertainty. Such a powerful concept can be used to generate an urban model fit for the societal and environmental challenges of this age. It can also be used to develop an alternative to planning and urban design that moves away from the attainment of a static vision of urban development in favour of one that focuses on processes enabling reorganization in response to changing conditions. This paper presents a comparative analysis of three case studies in the UK, developed using a scenario-based tool for assessing the long-term performance of urban development and identifying solutions that account for uncertainty (www.urban-futures.org). In doing so, the tool facilitates an approach to planning that is open-ended and receptive to rapid socio-economic and environmental shifts. The use of scenarios also enables a systemic view of the social, economic and environmental aspects that come into play in the planning process. Through the comparative analysis some principles for urban resilience emerge such as redundancy and diversity. Some of these principles have been previously debated in studies about the resilience of social-ecological systems. Herein, they are discussed from an urban perspective and as potential generators of a different view to planning.