A scenario-based analysis of building energy performance

Inherent to the sustainability discourse is concern about the long-term future. If sustainable, cities must deliver positive benefits over their possibly long lifetime. Yet in formulating guidance and negotiating design choices for urban development, the consideration of uncertainty and potential future adverse conditions leading to failure is difficult to deal with. In this paper an approach to this issue that can inform the planning and/or urban design process is presented. It is based on a scenario analysis methodology (futures analysis), which herein is used to appraise the energy-efficiency strategies currently recommended in the UK planning system and best practice. The built environment is one of the major consumers of energy, and its energy efficiency is thereby central to any attempt to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Through the analysis, some important factors that could undermine good energy performance emerge. Such findings can lead to the making of decisions that can enhance urban resilience. The first part of the paper provides an overview of the energy-efficient strategies examined, as well as current approaches for considering the evolution of present conditions when planning. The second part presents the futures analysis and its significance is demonstrated through a case study.