A structural causal model ontology approach for knowledge discovery in educational admission databases

Educational admission systems, particularly in developing countries, often suffer from opaque decision processes, unstructured data, and limited analytic insight. This study proposes a novel methodology that integrates structural causal models (SCMs), ontological modeling, and machine learning to uncover and apply interpretable knowledge from an admission database. Using a dataset of 12,043 records from Benue State Polytechnic, Nigeria, we demonstrate this approach as a proof of concept by constructing a domain-specific SCM ontology, validate it using conditional independence testing (CIT), and extract features for predictive modeling. Five classifiers, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. SVM and KNN achieved the highest classification accuracy (92%), with precision and recall scores exceeding 95% and 100%, respectively. Feature importance analysis revealed ‘mode of entry’ and ‘current qualification’ as key causal factors influencing admission decisions. This framework provides a reproducible pipeline that combines semantic representation and empirical validation, offering actionable insights for institutional decision-makers. Comparative benchmarking, ethical considerations, and model calibration are integrated to enhance methodological transparency. Limitations, including reliance on single-institution data, are acknowledged, and directions for generalizability and explainable AI are proposed.