Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

Robert Gausden, Mohammad S. Hasan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.
Original languageEnglish
JournalApplied Economics
Early online date4 Sep 2019
DOIs
Publication statusEarly online - 4 Sep 2019

Keywords

  • consumption
  • consumer confidence
  • model confidence set
  • consumer survey
  • forecasting

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this