Cycles and steps in British commercial property values

P. Scott, Guy Judge

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper examines cyclical behaviour in commercial property values over the period 1956 to 1996, using a structural times series (unobserved components) approach. The influence of the transition to short rent reviews during the late 1960s and the short and long-term impacts of the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are also incorporated into the analysis, via dummy variables. It is found that once these variables are taken into account a fairly regular cyclical pattern can be discerned, with a period of about 7.8 years. Furthermore, the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are shown to have had a major long-term impact on property value growth (presumably via their influence on investors' expectations).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1287-1297
Number of pages11
JournalApplied Economics
Volume32
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2000

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