Data-driven predictive modelling of agile projects using explainable Artificial Intelligence

One of the fundamental challenges in managing software and information technology projects is monitoring and predicting project status at the end of each sprint, release or project. Agile project management has emerged over the past two decades, significantly impacting project success. However, no comprehensive approach based on the features of this approach has been found in studies to monitor and predict the status of a sprint, release or project. This study aims to develop a data-driven approach for predicting the status of software projects based on agility features. For this purpose, 22 agility features were first identified to evaluate and predict the status of projects in four aspects: Endurance, Effectiveness, Efficiency, and Complexity. The findings indicate that the aspects of Effectiveness and Efficiency have the greatest impact on project success. Additionally, the results show that features related to team work, team capacity, experience and project objectives have the most significant impact on project success. An artificial neural network algorithm was then used, and a model was developed to predict project status, which was optimized using the Neural Architecture Search algorithm with a 93 percent accuracy rate. The neural network model was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm, and sensitivity analysis was performed on the important components. Finally, the behavior of the projects in each category was analyzed and evaluated using the Apriori algorithm.