Disproportion and decision: ethnic minority overrepresentation and police risk assessment in missing persons cases

Disproportionality in missing persons cases raises critical questions about forensic and legal decision making. In the UK, Black individuals comprise 14% of missing persons but only 3% of the population. This study analysed 18,266 cases from nine police forces in England and Wales to examine how case characteristics and ethnicity influence risk assessments. Analyses proceeded in three stages: (i) descriptive profiling of demographic, contextual, and risk-related factors; (ii) statistical comparison across ethnic groups; (iii) predictive modelling of how these characteristics influence risk classification. Ethnicity did not independently predict risk classification once other characteristics were controlled for. However, characteristics disproportionately associated with Black missing persons, such as youth and care orders, were linked to lower risk classifications. In contrast, White individuals were more often reported with mental health, health, or harm risks, which strongly predicted high-risk classification. This suggests police decision making may be indirectly shaped by ethnicity via associated characteristics, raising concerns about equity in assessment and investigative prioritisation. Potential mechanisms include underreporting of vulnerabilities in minority communities and inconsistencies in police recording practices. The study highlights the need for culturally informed, evidence-based decision frameworks in missing persons investigations to support just and accurate decision making in policing.