Empowering deeper-offshore mariculture: Exploring government guidance and research institution support strategies under stochastic disturbances

Deeper-Offshore Mariculture (DOM) serves as a promising high-quality protein source, carrying strategic significance for future food supply. However, high risks and extreme uncertainties in offshore marine areas remain the primary barriers preventing many marine aquaculture enterprises (MAEs) from expanding into DOM operations. The paper presents the outcome of a stochastic tripartite game model involving MAEs, research institutions, and provincial governments in various scenarii. The results reveal that: (1) Having a well-defined policy development framework for marine aquaculture, enhancing research outcomes to mitigate DOM risks, and exploring the multidimensional benefits of DOM, effectively incentivize MAEs to pursue DOM development, mainly by building their capacity to integrate DOM into their current core operations. (2) R&D effectiveness influences the sequence and status of research institutions and governments engaging with DOM, a sequence that clarifies the priority of two pathways: government-guided DOM-related research by institutions or institutional proposals to government for advancing the DOM industry. From the standpoint of research institutions, focusing on improving the practical effectiveness of DOM R&D, rather than merely pursuing the upper limit of the institutions' own gains, shall secure stable investment and achieve long-term development. (3) Direct subsidies to MAEs are not the best way to promote DOM as MAEs do not necessarily act wisely and tend to transfer risks to government. Burden reduction for MAEs that invest in DOM provides better incentive to act in an efficient way to ensure long-term engagement.