Evolving seasonal patterns in UK energy series

Lester Hunt, Guy Judge

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)peer-review


    UK Energy series exhibit pronounced regular but not necessarily fixed seasonal patterns. Failure to reflect such changing patterns in econometric models of energy use can result both in misleading estimates of elasticities and policy responses and in forecasts which under- and over-predict seasonal peaks and troughs. Structural Times Series models permit the formulation, estimation and testing of models which allow for evolving stochastic seasonal components and reflect changing patterns of economic behaviour. Moreover such components can be incorporated into causal regression equations to permit greater flexibility in modelling the seasonal variation than is possible using ordinary dummy variables. By estimating suitable dynamic models which allow for evolving seasonal effects and then nesting the fixed effects models, we compare estimated elasticities and test the restriction of fixed seasonal effects.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationThe UK energy experience: a model or a warning?
    EditorsG. Mackerron, P. Pearson
    Place of PublicationLondon
    PublisherImperial College Press
    Number of pages12
    ISBN (Print)9781860940224
    Publication statusPublished - Mar 1996
    EventTHE UK ENERGY EXPERIENCE A Model or A Warning? - University of Warwick
    Duration: 11 Dec 199512 Dec 1995


    ConferenceTHE UK ENERGY EXPERIENCE A Model or A Warning?


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