Exploring accumulative risk and protective factors for young people: an agent based model

Aaron Pycroft*, JoAnn Lee, Michael Wolf-Branigin

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

Purpose: This agent-based modeling (ABM) explores the impacts of a professional's decision making on young people in their social lives.

Methods: In this model young people are presented with opportunities to engage in prosocial and antisocial activities. In these processes’ authority figures act either as a deterrent; actively reduce the risk of recidivism; or actively reduce risk and encourage prosocial development.

Results: We assess the outcomes of those interventions and through running simulations, observe the ways in which the use of authority contributes to the creation of path dependence and the locking in of recidivism.

Discussion: We conclude by discussing the findings and the ethics of punitive approaches that lock in recidivism, and question why these approaches continue in the light of the evidence. We then discuss the application of ABM to social work practices more broadly and particularly the promise of participatory approaches.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages18
JournalResearch on Social Work Practice
Early online date1 Sept 2025
DOIs
Publication statusEarly online - 1 Sept 2025

Keywords

  • Agent-based model
  • young people
  • risk factors
  • complexity theory
  • path dependence
  • professional decision-making

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