Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

Hossein Hassani, Emmanuel Sirimal Silva, Nikolaos Antonakakis, George Filis, Rangan Gupta

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    Abstract

    This paper evaluates the use of several parametric and nonparametric forecasting techniques for predicting tourism demand in selected European countries. We find that no single model can provide the best forecasts for any of the countries in the short-, medium- and long-run. The results, which are tested for statistical significance, enable forecasters to choose the most suitable model (from those evaluated here) based on the country and horizon for forecasting tourism demand. Should a single model be of interest, then, across all selected countries and horizons the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis model is found to be the most efficient based on lowest overall forecasting error. Neural Networks and ARFIMA are found to be the worst performing models.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)112-127
    JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
    Volume63
    Early online date2 Feb 2017
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2017

    Keywords

    • tourist arrivals
    • forecasting
    • Singular Spectrum Analysis
    • Time Series Analysis

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