Forecasting NHS patient activity in England

Thierry Chaussalet, Philip Worrall, Banafsheh Khosravi

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract


Monitor is the NHS organisation in England with main focus to assess applications by NHS bodies to become NHS foundation trusts - organisations that provide and develop healthcare within a devolved decision making framework. Under the 2012 Act Monitor now exercises a range of powers granted by Parliament which include: setting and enforcing a framework of rules for providers and commissioners, making sure providers are well led so that they can provide high quality care; making sure essential NHS services are protected if a provider gets into difficulty and lastly, that the NHS payment system rewards quality and efficiency. Monitor achieves this through regulating providers of NHS services, setting prices for NHS-funded services in England, supporting the delivery of integrated services, preventing anticompetitive behaviour within the system, and supporting the continuity of services in the event of failure of a health care provider. Here we present the first phase of research and development of models to help Monitor in forecasting NHS activity to be used for economic evaluation and impact assessment of pricing policies. In this phase we review the literature around patient activity forecasting and develop a semi-automatic time series procedure to develop activity forecasts for groupings of clinically similar treatments which use common levels of healthcare resources.
The overall approach is based on the application of operational research modelling and econometric-based methods to understand the processes governing NHS activity in England with respect to Admitted Patient Care; Outpatient Attendances and Procedures; and Accident and Emergency. Ultimately the significance of the work relates to how it can help measure and gauge the effect of different pricing policies, with respect to both patients and providers, so as to support the setting of efficient tariffs that promote and consider the interests of all affected parties.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2014
EventORAHS 2014: 40th annual meeting of the EURO Working Group on Operational Research Applied to Health Services - Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 20 Jul 201425 Jul 2014


ConferenceORAHS 2014
Internet address


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