Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics

Ioannis Chatziantoniou, Stavros Degiannakis, Bruno Eeckels, George Filis

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    Abstract

    This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)2571-2585
    JournalApplied Economics
    Volume48
    Issue number27
    Early online date29 Dec 2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Keywords

    • Tourist arrivals forecasting
    • seasonal ARIMA
    • Diebold-Mariano test
    • disaggregated data
    • macroeconomic indicators

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