Forecasting unknown/unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation

Alasdair Marshall, Udechukwu Ojiako, Victoria Wang, Fenfang Lin, Maxwell Chipulu

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Abstract

This theoretical perspective paper interprets (un) known-(un) known risk quadrants as formed from abstract and concrete risk knowledge. It presents these quadrants as useful, both for categorising risk forecasting challenges against levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge typically available, and for psychometric research measuring perceived levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge available for forecasting. Drawing on some cybersecurity risk examples, a case is made for refocusing risk management forecasting effort towards raising unknown-unknowns into known-knowns. We propose achieving this by developing the ‘boosted risk radar’ as organisational practice where suitably ‘risk intelligent’ managers gather ‘risk intelligence information’, such that the ‘risk intelligent organisation’ can purposefully co-develop both abstract and concrete risk forecasting knowledge. We illustrate what this can entail in simple practice terms within organisations.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)644-658
Number of pages15
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume35
Issue number2
Early online date23 Oct 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2019

Keywords

  • risk intelligence
  • competitive intelligence
  • military intelligence
  • risk radar

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