Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 from mainland Europe into Scotland

COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Samuel Robson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Scotland on 1 March 2020. During the first month of the outbreak, 2,641 cases of COVID-19 led to 1,832 hospital admissions, 207 intensive care admissions and 126 deaths. We aimed to identify the source and number of introductions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into Scotland using a combined phylogenetic and epidemiological approach. Sequencing of 1,314 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from available patient samples enabled us to estimate that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to Scotland on at least 283 occasions during February and March 2020. Epidemiological analysis confirmed that early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 originated from mainland Europe (the majority from Italy and Spain). We identified subsequent early outbreaks in the community, within healthcare facilities and at an international conference. Community transmission occurred after 2 March, 3 weeks before control measures were introduced. Earlier travel restrictions or quarantine measures, both locally and internationally, would have reduced the number of COVID-19 cases in Scotland. The risk of multiple reintroduction events in future waves of infection remains high in the absence of population immunity.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)112-122
Number of pages11
JournalNature Microbiology
Volume6
Issue number1
Early online date21 Dec 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2021

Keywords

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • COVID-19/epidemiology
  • Europe/epidemiology
  • Genome, Viral
  • High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Molecular Epidemiology
  • Phylogeny
  • SARS-CoV-2/genetics
  • Spain/epidemiology
  • Travel/statistics & numerical data

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