Impacts of rising fuel prices on modal shift among university students: some policy insights for sustainable transport in developing economies

In light of the recent global events, such as the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, gasoline prices have soared worldwide. These fluctuations in fuel prices affect the mode choices of individuals. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the effects of rising fuel prices on the mode preferences of university students for commuting and non-commuting trips. The data was collected from various universities in Lahore, Pakistan. Hypothesis testing was conducted to determine the changes in mode choices, as well as to evaluate the impact of socio-economic demographic variables on those choices. The results indicated that, with the rising fuel prices, people shifted from private transport to sustainable transport modes for both commuting and non-commuting trips. Unlike male students, female students shifted from private transport to sustainable transport due to the current fuel price hike. Similarly, students with low and middle household income groups adopted sustainable transport, but not those with higher income. Moreover, individuals with longer commuting distances shifted to sustainable transport, whereas those with short to medium distances did not. Based on the findings of this study, pertinent policy insights have been provided for transport planners and relevant authorities.