Independent policy, dependent outcomes: a game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves

Alexis Stenfors*, Ioannis Chatziantoniou, David Gabauer

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic transmission mechanism between 2Y, 5Y and 10Y interest rate swaps (IRS) for six European currencies (CHF, DKK, EUR, GBP, NOK and SEK) from August 6, 1999 to March 4, 2021 applying the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive connectedness approach in the spirit of Antonakakis et al. (2020). Furthermore, we propose a novel conditional connectedness approach that extends the original framework (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012, 2014) by analysing dynamic connectedness measures in more depth and improving the interpretability of information concerning the cross-maturity/cross-currency propagation mechanism. We document that EUR and DKK have been the most prominent transmitters of shocks in the network. We also find that the 10Y IRS has increasingly assumed a net-transmitting role at the expense of the 2Y IRS—in line with a shift towards unconventional monetary policy and quantitative easing. From a policy-making perspective, this implies means that the role of the domestic short-term interest rate has become significantly less relevant for the monetary transmission mechanism at the expense of the foreign long-term interest rate.
Original languageEnglish
Article number101658
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Volume81
Early online date7 Oct 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2022

Keywords

  • dynamic connectedness
  • aggregated connectedness
  • conditional connectedness
  • interest rate swaps
  • TVP-VAR
  • yield curves

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