Integrating channel evolution into river management: towards a functional decision-support framework

Numerous studies have retrospectively reconstructed channel evolutionary trajectories in the recent Anthropocene using multiple historical data sources, but how can evolutionary tendencies be projected forward to build foresight competency into the field of river management? A system of prediction is required that can simulate likely modes of channel morphological evolution to projected changes in environmental forcing conditions over management timeframes (i.e., decades to a century or more), and over distances of multiple kilometres. Such systems require an intermediate focus beyond the usual range of detailed simulation undertaken in multi-dimensional hydraulic modelling, but with a locational and temporal precision greater than achieved in landscape evolution models. Critically, the analysis needs to be directed towards the strategic decision-support needs of the river manager by reformulating technical output data into a format best suited for their needs. We present in-progress research simulating state-transition changes in river morphology over decadal timescales, allowing the potential hazards and assets associated with changing channel morphology to be translated through a decision support graphical ‘dashboard’ that illustrates threshold-based risks related to common issues in river planning, engineering, and restoration and conservation.