Integration of fuzzy c-means and artificial neural network for short-term localized rainfall forecast in tropical climate

Noor Zuraidin Mohd-Safar, David Lorater Ndzi, David Adrian Sanders, Hassanuddin Mohamed Noor, Latifah Munirah Kamarudin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of a rainfall forecasting model. In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm are combined and used to forecast short-term localized rainfall in tropical climate. State forecast (raining or not raining) and value forecast (rain intensity) are tested using a number of trained networks. Different types of ANN structured were trained with a combination of multilayer perceptron with back propagation network. Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization and Scaled Conjugate Gradient training algorithm are used in the network training. Each neurons uses linear, logistic sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent sigmoid as transfer function. Input parameter preliminary analysis, data cleaning and FCM clustering were used to prepare input data for the ANN forecast model. Meteorological data such as atmospheric pressure, temperature, dew point, humidity and wind speed have been used as input parameters. The predicted rainfall forecast for 1 to 6 hour ahead are compared and analyzed. 1 hour ahead for state and value forecast yield high accuracy. Result shows that, the combined of FCM-ANN forecast model produces better accuracy compared to a basic ANN forecast model.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of SAI Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys) 2016
EditorsYaxin Bi, Supriya Kapoor, Rahul Bhatia
PublisherSpringer
Pages499-516
Number of pages9
Volume2
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-56991-8
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-56990-1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Aug 2017
EventSAI Intelligent Systems Conference 2016 - London, United Kingdom
Duration: 21 Sep 201622 Sep 2016
http://saiconference.com/IntelliSys2016

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Networks and Systems
PublisherSpringer
Volume16
ISSN (Print)2367-3370

Conference

ConferenceSAI Intelligent Systems Conference 2016
Abbreviated titleIntelliSys 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period21/09/1622/09/16
Internet address

Keywords

  • artificial neural network
  • fuzzy c-means
  • rainfall forecast
  • rainfall prediction
  • neural network
  • tropical climate

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