Laboratory simulation of fluid-driven seismic sequences in shallow crustal conditions

We report new laboratory simulations of fluid-induced seismicity on pre-existing faults in sandstone. By introducing pore pressure oscillations, faults were activated or reactivated to generate seismic sequences. These sequences were analysed using a slip-forecast model. Furthermore, field data from the Monticello reservoir was used to verify the model. Our results suggest that short-term forecasting is reliant upon the final stages when crack communication begins, limiting reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) forecasting strategies to short periods. In addition, our laboratory data confirms the general accuracy and robustness of short-term forecast techniques dealing with natural crack-linkage processes, whether strain driven or fluid driven, ranging from volcanic hazard mitigation to episodic tremors and slips. Finally, oscillating pore pressure can prolong the period of fluid-induced seismicity, and the aftershock decay rate is slower than that without oscillations.