@article{ba79f0f2251d4798be329f9554fca317,
title = "Linking climate warming and land conversion to species{\textquoteright} range changes across Great Britain",
abstract = "Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.",
keywords = "climate-change ecology, macroecology, conservation, biodiversity, land use change, Great Britain, UKRI, NERC, NE/M013030/1",
author = "Suggitt, {Andrew J.} and Wheatley, {Christopher J.} and Paula Aucott and Beale, {Colin M.} and Richard Fox and Hill, {Jane K.} and Isaac, {Nick J.B.} and Blaise Martay and Humphrey Southall and Thomas, {Chris D.} and Walker, {Kevin J.} and Auffret, {Alistair G.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank the many thousands of volunteer surveyors of land use and biodiversity, without whom these analyses would not have been possible. Data and imagery from the Land-Utilisation Survey of Great Britain are reproduced with permission of the copyright holder Giles N. Clark. Chris Fleet at National Library of Scotland provided assistance with land-use maps covering Scotland, and Natural England provided assistance with maps covering England and Wales. Thanks to Pieter De Frenne, Bronwen Whitney, Tim Newbold, Tomas P{\"a}rt and Mike Rogerson for providing comments on the manuscript. This work was supported by a UKRI Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/M013030/1, for A.J.S., J.K.H. and C.D.T.), a Northumbria University Vice Chancellor{\textquoteright}s Senior Research Fellowship (for A.J.S.), and grants from the Swedish Research Councils Formas and VR (2015-1065 and 2020-04276, for A.G.A.). Funding Information: We thank the many thousands of volunteer surveyors of land use and biodiversity, without whom these analyses would not have been possible. Data and imagery from the Land-Utilisation Survey of Great Britain are reproduced with permission of the copyright holder Giles N. Clark. Chris Fleet at National Library of Scotland provided assistance with land-use maps covering Scotland, and Natural England provided assistance with maps covering England and Wales. Thanks to Pieter De Frenne, Bronwen Whitney, Tim Newbold, Tomas P{\"a}rt and Mike Rogerson for providing comments on the manuscript. This work was supported by a UKRI Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/M013030/1, for A.J.S., J.K.H. and C.D.T.), a Northumbria University Vice Chancellor{\textquoteright}s Senior Research Fellowship (for A.J.S.), and grants from the Swedish Research Councils Formas and VR (2015-1065 and 2020-04276, for A.G.A.). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, Springer Nature Limited.",
year = "2023",
month = oct,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-023-42475-0",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
}