Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Jonathan Lenoir; Bente Jessen Graae; Per Arild Aarrestad; Inger Greve Alsos; Scott Armbruster; Gunnar Austrheim; Claes Bergendorff; H. John B. Birks; Kari Anne Brathen; Jorg Brunet; Hans Henrik Bruun; Carl Johan Dahlberg; Guillaume Decocq; Martin Diekmann; Mats Dynesius; Rasmus Ejrnaes; John-Arvid Grytnes; Kristoffer Hylander; Kari Klanderud; Miska Luoto; Ann Milbau; Mari Moora; Bettina Nygaard; Arvid Odland; Virve Tuulia Ravolainen; Stefanie Reinhardt; Sylvi Marlen  Sandvik; Fride Hoistad Schei; James David Mervyn Speed; Liv Unn Tveraabak; Vigdis Vandvik; Liv Guri Velle; Risto Virtanen; Martin Zobel; Jens-Christian Svenning

doi:10.1111/gcb.12129

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Jonathan Lenoir, Bente Jessen Graae, Per Arild Aarrestad, Inger Greve Alsos, Scott Armbruster, Gunnar Austrheim, Claes Bergendorff, H. John B. Birks, Kari Anne Brathen, Jorg Brunet, Hans Henrik Bruun, Carl Johan Dahlberg, Guillaume Decocq, Martin Diekmann, Mats Dynesius, Rasmus Ejrnaes, John-Arvid Grytnes, Kristoffer Hylander, Kari Klanderud, Miska LuotoAnn Milbau, Mari Moora, Bettina Nygaard, Arvid Odland, Virve Tuulia Ravolainen, Stefanie Reinhardt, Sylvi Marlen Sandvik, Fride Hoistad Schei, James David Mervyn Speed, Liv Unn Tveraabak, Vigdis Vandvik, Liv Guri Velle, Risto Virtanen, Martin Zobel, Jens-Christian Svenning

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Abstract

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km²) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km² units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km² units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km² units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km² units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km⁻¹) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km⁻¹). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km² units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1470-1481
Journal	Global Change Biology
Volume	19
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12129
Publication status	Published - 2013

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Lenoir, J., Graae, B. J., Aarrestad, P. A., Alsos, I. G., Armbruster, S., Austrheim, G., Bergendorff, C., Birks, H. J. B., Brathen, K. A., Brunet, J., Bruun, H. H., Dahlberg, C. J., Decocq, G., Diekmann, M., Dynesius, M., Ejrnaes, R., Grytnes, J.-A., Hylander, K., Klanderud, K., ... Svenning, J.-C. (2013). Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe. Global Change Biology, 19(5), 1470-1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12129

@article{0887f7a8946f4505a9cbf63360283638,

title = "Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe",

abstract = "Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km−1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km−1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.",

author = "Jonathan Lenoir and Graae, {Bente Jessen} and Aarrestad, {Per Arild} and Alsos, {Inger Greve} and Scott Armbruster and Gunnar Austrheim and Claes Bergendorff and Birks, {H. John B.} and Brathen, {Kari Anne} and Jorg Brunet and Bruun, {Hans Henrik} and Dahlberg, {Carl Johan} and Guillaume Decocq and Martin Diekmann and Mats Dynesius and Rasmus Ejrnaes and John-Arvid Grytnes and Kristoffer Hylander and Kari Klanderud and Miska Luoto and Ann Milbau and Mari Moora and Bettina Nygaard and Arvid Odland and Ravolainen, {Virve Tuulia} and Stefanie Reinhardt and Sandvik, {Sylvi Marlen} and Schei, {Fride Hoistad} and Speed, {James David Mervyn} and Tveraabak, {Liv Unn} and Vigdis Vandvik and Velle, {Liv Guri} and Risto Virtanen and Martin Zobel and Jens-Christian Svenning",

year = "2013",

doi = "10.1111/gcb.12129",

language = "English",

volume = "19",

pages = "1470--1481",

journal = "Global Change Biology",

issn = "1354-1013",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "5",

}

Lenoir, J, Graae, BJ, Aarrestad, PA, Alsos, IG, Armbruster, S, Austrheim, G, Bergendorff, C, Birks, HJB, Brathen, KA, Brunet, J, Bruun, HH, Dahlberg, CJ, Decocq, G, Diekmann, M, Dynesius, M, Ejrnaes, R, Grytnes, J-A, Hylander, K, Klanderud, K, Luoto, M, Milbau, A, Moora, M, Nygaard, B, Odland, A, Ravolainen, VT, Reinhardt, S, Sandvik, SM, Schei, FH, Speed, JDM, Tveraabak, LU, Vandvik, V, Velle, LG, Virtanen, R, Zobel, M & Svenning, J-C 2013, 'Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe', Global Change Biology, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 1470-1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12129

TY - JOUR

T1 - Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

AU - Lenoir, Jonathan

AU - Graae, Bente Jessen

AU - Aarrestad, Per Arild

AU - Alsos, Inger Greve

AU - Armbruster, Scott

AU - Austrheim, Gunnar

AU - Bergendorff, Claes

AU - Birks, H. John B.

AU - Brathen, Kari Anne

AU - Brunet, Jorg

AU - Bruun, Hans Henrik

AU - Dahlberg, Carl Johan

AU - Decocq, Guillaume

AU - Diekmann, Martin

AU - Dynesius, Mats

AU - Ejrnaes, Rasmus

AU - Grytnes, John-Arvid

AU - Hylander, Kristoffer

AU - Klanderud, Kari

AU - Luoto, Miska

AU - Milbau, Ann

AU - Moora, Mari

AU - Nygaard, Bettina

AU - Odland, Arvid

AU - Ravolainen, Virve Tuulia

AU - Reinhardt, Stefanie

AU - Sandvik, Sylvi Marlen

AU - Schei, Fride Hoistad

AU - Speed, James David Mervyn

AU - Tveraabak, Liv Unn

AU - Vandvik, Vigdis

AU - Velle, Liv Guri

AU - Virtanen, Risto

AU - Zobel, Martin

AU - Svenning, Jens-Christian

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km−1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km−1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

AB - Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km−1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km−1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.12129

DO - 10.1111/gcb.12129

M3 - Article

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 19

SP - 1470

EP - 1481

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 5

ER -

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

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