Methane emissions baseline forecasts for Saudi Arabia using the structural time series model and autometrics

Anwar A. Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun I. Mikzayilov

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper


Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally. Although CH4 has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherKing Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Number of pages32
Publication statusPublished - 14 Sept 2023

Publication series

NameKAPSARC Discussion Paper
PublisherKing Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

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