Methane emissions baseline forecasts for Saudi Arabia using the structural time series model and autometrics

Anwar A. Gasim; Lester C. Hunt; Jeyhun I. Mikzayilov

Methane emissions baseline forecasts for Saudi Arabia using the structural time series model and autometrics

Anwar A. Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun I. Mikzayilov

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Research output: Working paper › Discussion paper

Abstract

Reducing methane (CH₄) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH₄ is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO₂). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH₄ emissions globally. Although CH₄ has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO₂ in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH₄ explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO₂.

Original language	English
Publisher	King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
Number of pages	32
Publication status	Published - 14 Sept 2023

Publication series

Name	KAPSARC Discussion Paper
Publisher	King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
No.	KS-2023-DP08

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/methane-emissions-baseline-forecasts-for-saudi-arabia-using-the-structural-time-series-model-and-autometrics-2/

Cite this

Gasim, A. A., Hunt, L. C., & Mikzayilov, J. I. (2023). Methane emissions baseline forecasts for Saudi Arabia using the structural time series model and autometrics. (KAPSARC Discussion Paper; No. KS-2023-DP08). King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/methane-emissions-baseline-forecasts-for-saudi-arabia-using-the-structural-time-series-model-and-autometrics-2/

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abstract = "Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally. Although CH4 has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2.",

author = "Gasim, {Anwar A.} and Hunt, {Lester C.} and Mikzayilov, {Jeyhun I.}",

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Gasim, AA, Hunt, LC & Mikzayilov, JI 2023 'Methane emissions baseline forecasts for Saudi Arabia using the structural time series model and autometrics' KAPSARC Discussion Paper, no. KS-2023-DP08, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. <https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/methane-emissions-baseline-forecasts-for-saudi-arabia-using-the-structural-time-series-model-and-autometrics-2/>

TY - UNPB

T1 - Methane emissions baseline forecasts for Saudi Arabia using the structural time series model and autometrics

AU - Gasim, Anwar A.

AU - Hunt, Lester C.

AU - Mikzayilov, Jeyhun I.

N1 - DOI on VoR (10.30573/KS--2023-DP08) does not link to correct discussion paper

PY - 2023/9/14

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N2 - Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally. Although CH4 has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2.

AB - Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally. Although CH4 has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2.

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