Mind the double gap: using multivariate multilevel modelling to investigate public perceptions of crime trends

This paper uses multivariate multilevel models with data from the British Crime Survey to investigate individual and neighbourhood influences on perceptions of local and national crime trends. In response to debates about the negative consequences of immigration and ethnic diversity, we specifically investigate the influence of ethnic heterogeneity on such perceptions. Results indicate that a person's socio-demographic background and their newspaper readership have the strongest association with perceptions of national trends whilst the strongest association with pessimistic views on localized crime is whether the individual has been a recent crime victim. Results suggest no negative effects for ethnic diversity. Moreover, the findings indicate that living in a mixed neighbourhood is associated with a reduced likelihood of perceiving rising levels of national crime.