Modelling skewness and kurtosis with the BCPE density in GAMLSS

V. Voudouris, R. Gilchrist, R. Rigby, John Sedgwick, D. Stasinopoulos

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    This paper illustrates the power of modern statistical modelling in understanding processes characterised by data that are skewed and have heavy tails. Our particular substantive problem concerns film box-office revenues. We are able to show that traditional modelling techniques based on the Pareto–Levy–Mandelbrot distribution led to what is actually a poorly supported conclusion that these data have infinite variance. This in turn led to the dominant paradigm of the movie business that 'nobody knows anything' and hence that box-office revenues cannot be predicted. Using the Box–Cox power exponential distribution within the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape framework, we are able to model box-office revenues and develop probabilistic statements about revenues.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1279-1293
    Number of pages15
    JournalJournal of Applied Statistics
    Issue number6
    Publication statusPublished - 2012


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