Oil above water: economic interdependence and third party intervention

Vincenzo Bove, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Petros Sekeris

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    Abstract

    We explore economic incentives for third parties to intervene in on-going internal wars. We develop a three-party model of the decision to intervene in conflict that highlights the role of the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs. We present novel empirical results on the role of oil in motivating third party military intervention. We find that the likelihood of a third party intervention increases when a) the country at war has large reserves of oil, b) the relative competition in the sector is limited and c) the potential intervener has a higher demand for oil.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-27
    JournalJournal of Conflict Resolution: Research on War and Peace between and within Nations
    Early online date27 Jan 2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

    Keywords

    • WNU
    • Intrastate Conflict
    • Third party intervention

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