Online sexual offending against children: recidivism rates and predictors

Recidivism among individuals who have sexually offended poses a significant public health and safety concern. Much of our knowledge regarding recidivism rates and predictors however stems from studies focusing on individuals involved in offline sexual offending. Given the substantial variability in individual and contextual factors between offline and online sexual offending, it is crucial to assess the predictive validity of traditional risk factors in individuals engaged in online child exploitation. This study examines recidivism rates and risk factors among individuals involved in online child sexual exploitation, analyzing data from a sample of 228 adult males who had committed sexual and nonsexual offenses at their index crime. Statistical analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between dynamic risk factors, such as atypical sexuality, offense-supportive cognitions, and markers of antisocial behaviors. The findings suggest that offense-supportive cognitions and emotional congruence with children serve as predictors for contact sexual recidivism, while consumption of child sexual exploitation material and bestiality pornography are linked to online sexual recidivism. Involvement in criminality was predictive of nonsexual types of recidivism and negatively related to sexual recidivism in our sample. The study discusses limitations and contributions for clinical practice in light of these findings. Overall, this research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of recidivism patterns and risk factors among individuals engaged in online sexual offenses against children, emphasizing the need for tailored intervention strategies in this population.