Predicting railway slope failure under heavy rainfall using the soil moisture extended cohesive damage element method

Slope failure, as a natural disaster, can cause extensive human suffering and financial losses worldwide. This paper introduces a new soil moisture extended cohesive damage element (SMECDE) method to predict railway slope failure under heavy rainfall. A correlation between rainfall intensity and soil moisture content is first established to create an equivalence between the two. Considering slope failure mechanisms dominated by the loss of soil or the cohesion of slope materials due to heavy rainfall infiltration, the soil moisture decohesion model (SMDM) is developed using previous experimental data to express how soil cohesion varies with different soil moistures and depths. The SMDM is incorporated into the extended cohesive damage element (ECDE) method to fundamentally study slope failure mechanisms under varying soil moisture levels and depths. The proposed SMECDE approach is used to predict the failure propagation of a selected railway embankment slope at the critical soil moisture or rainfall intensity. This SMECDE failure prediction is validated using relevant data from previous fieldwork and meteorological reports on the critical rainfall intensity at the site. Additionally, the corresponding slope damage scale prediction is validated with a large plastic deformation analysis using the commercial FEM package ABAQUS.