Prediction of soft-cliff retreat with accelerating sea-level rise

Reliable estimates of future cliff recession are needed to assess coastal vulnerability and evaluate management policies with regard to the widespread sea-level rise thought likely to result from global warming. A research gap is identified in providing appropriate predictive methods. This paper reviews the possible effects of sea-level rise upon soft-rock cliffs over a 50-100 year planning timescale. It evaluates different methods of analysing historical recession and highlights the main assumptions and rules governing future extrapolation of retreat rates. Simple predictive models including a modification of the Bruun Rule are developed and applied to estimate cliff sensitivity to sea-level rise in southern England.