Projecting Saudi Arabia's CO₂ Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Using an econometric model, we generate scenario projections of CO₂ emissions under different sets of assumptions on the underlying drivers. These drivers include GDP, the energy price, economic structure, and the underlying emissions trend. Our baseline scenario projects that Saudi CO₂ emissions will rise from 540 Mt in 2019 to 621 Mt in 2030 and 878 Mt in 2060. In a high GDP growth scenario, the corresponding numbers for CO₂ emissions are 635 Mt in 2030 and 985 Mt in 2060. In contrast, in a low GDP growth scenario, CO₂ emissions would grow to 607 Mt in 2030 and 781 Mt in 2060. In an economic diversification scenario, CO₂ emissions would grow to 602 Mt in 2030 and 769 Mt in 2060. These projections are 646 Mt and 1096 Mt for the heavy industrialization scenario. Even in our lowest scenario, further efforts are needed to meet the net zero ambition.