Risk scoring models for trade credit in small and medium enterprises

Manuel Terradez, Renatas Kizys, Angel A. Juan, Ana M. Debon, Bartosz Sawik

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    Abstract

    Trade credit refers to providing goods and services on a deferred payment basis. Commercial credit management is a matter of great importance for most small and medium enterprises (SMEs), since it represents a significant portion of their assets. Commercial lending involves assuming some credit risk due to exposure to default. Thus, the management of trade credit and payment delays is strongly related to the liquidation and bankruptcy of enterprises. In this paper we study the relationship between trade credit management and the level of risk in SMEs. Despite its relevance for most SMEs, this problem has not been sufficiently analyzed in the existing literature. After a brief review of existing literature, we use a large database of enterprises to analyze data and propose a multivariate decision-tree model which aims at explaining the level of risk as a function of several variables, both of financial and non-financial nature. Decision trees replace the equation in parametric regression models with a set of rules. This feature is an important aid for the decision process of risk experts, as it allows them to reduce time and then the economic cost of their decisions.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationTheory and Practice of Risk Assessment
    Subtitle of host publicationICRA 5, Tomar, Portugal, 2013
    PublisherSpringer International Publishing
    Pages349-360
    Number of pages12
    VolumePart II
    ISBN (Electronic)978-3319180298
    ISBN (Print)978-3319180281
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 19 May 2015

    Publication series

    NameTheory and Practice of Risk Assessment
    Volume136
    ISSN (Print)2194-1009
    ISSN (Electronic)2194-1017

    Keywords

    • trade credit
    • scoring models
    • small and medium enterprises
    • multivariate regression
    • decision trees

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