Abstract
Forecasting stock price ranges remains a significant challenge because of the non-linear nature of financial data. This study proposes and evaluates a stacking ensemble model for range-based volatility forecasting, using open, high, low, and close (OHLC) prices. The model integrates a diverse, heterogeneous set of base learners, such as statistical (ARIMA), machine learning (Random Forest), and deep learning (LSTM, GRU, Transformer) models, with an XGBoost meta-learner. Applied to several major financial indices and a single stock, the proposed framework demonstrates high predictive accuracy, achieving 𝑅2 scores between 0.9735 and 0.9905. These results highlight the efficacy of a multi-faceted stacking approach in navigating the complexities of financial forecasting.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 201 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | International Journal of Financial Studies |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| Early online date | 28 Oct 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2025 |
Keywords
- stacked machine learning
- stock price forecasting
- LSTM
- ARIMA
- XGBoost
- GRU
- transformer