Sustainable refurbishment for post-war educational buildings under a changing climate

Higher education institutions in England occupy approximately 25 million m² of gross space. Considerable sums of money are now being spent on refurbishing parts of the estate, much of which was built since the 1940s to thermal standards far lower than those expected today. The choice of whether to refurbish or demolish and rebuild requires a critical analysis of a range of environmental, social and economic issues. To this end the Association of University Directors of Estates developed a toolkit to identify crucial issues that need to be taken into account in order to make this choice clear. However, while the toolkit represents a considerable step forward, it does not include the projected impact of climate change and its uncertainty. Analysis of an existing naturally ventilated higher education building built in 1974 suggests that projected changes in the UK climate will have a significant impact on the likelihood of building overheating. Consequently, when assessing likely refurbishment options it is essential that the impacts of climate uncertainty now and in the future are considered.