TY - JOUR
T1 - The climatic challenge
T2 - which plants will people use in the next century?
AU - Borrell, J. S.
AU - Dodsworth, S.
AU - Forest, F.
AU - Pérez-Escobar, O. A.
AU - Lee, M. A.
AU - Mattana, E.
AU - Stevenson, P. C.
AU - Howes, M. J. R.
AU - Pritchard, H. W.
AU - Ballesteros, D.
AU - Kusumoto, B.
AU - Ondo, I.
AU - Moat, J.
AU - Milliken, W.
AU - Ryan, P.
AU - Ulian, T.
AU - Pironon, S.
N1 - Funding Information:
JB was supported by the GCRF Foundation Awards for Global Agricultural and Food Systems Research, entitled, ?Modelling and genomics resources to enhance exploitation of the sustainable and diverse Ethiopian starch crop enset and support livelihoods? [Grant No. BB/P02307X/1]. SP also acknowledges financial support of the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the Belmont Forum project FICESSA (Food Security Impacts of Industrial Crop Expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa; Grant No. NE/M021351/1). We are thankful to all students, assistants, collection curators, partners and researchers that supported collation of data on global useful plant diversity and documentation. We thank Dr Ilia Leitch and Dr Mark Nesbitt for thoughtful comments on the manuscript. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Funding Information:
JB was supported by the GCRF Foundation Awards for Global Agricultural and Food Systems Research , entitled, ‘Modelling and genomics resources to enhance exploitation of the sustainable and diverse Ethiopian starch crop enset and support livelihoods’ [Grant No. BB/P02307X/1 ]. SP also acknowledges financial support of the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the Belmont Forum project FICESSA (Food Security Impacts of Industrial Crop Expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa; Grant No. NE/M021351/1 ). We are thankful to all students, assistants, collection curators, partners and researchers that supported collation of data on global useful plant diversity and documentation. We thank Dr Ilia Leitch and Dr Mark Nesbitt for thoughtful comments on the manuscript. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/2/1
Y1 - 2020/2/1
N2 - More than 31,000 useful plant species have been documented to fulfil needs and services for humans or the animals and environment we depend on. Despite this diversity, humans currently satisfy most requirements with surprisingly few plant species; for example, just three crops – rice, wheat and maize – comprise more than 50% of plant derived calories. Here, we synthesize the projected impact of global climatic change on useful plants across the spectrum of plant domestication. We illustrate the demographic, spatial, ecophysiological, chemical, functional, evolutionary and cultural traits that are likely to characterise useful plants and their resilience in the next century. Using this framework, we consider a range of possible pathways for future human use of plants. These are centred on two trade-offs: i) diversification versus specialization in the range of species we utilize, and ii) substitution of the species towards those better suited to future climate versus facilitating adaptation in our existing suite of dominant useful plants. In the coming century, major challenges to agriculture and biodiversity will be dominated by increased climatic variation, shifting species ranges, disruption to biotic interactions, nutrient limitation and emerging pests and pathogens. These challenges must be mitigated, whilst enhancing sustainable production to meet the needs of a growing population and a more resource intensive standard of living. With the continued erosion of biodiversity, our future ability to choose among these pathways and trade-offs is likely to be diminished.
AB - More than 31,000 useful plant species have been documented to fulfil needs and services for humans or the animals and environment we depend on. Despite this diversity, humans currently satisfy most requirements with surprisingly few plant species; for example, just three crops – rice, wheat and maize – comprise more than 50% of plant derived calories. Here, we synthesize the projected impact of global climatic change on useful plants across the spectrum of plant domestication. We illustrate the demographic, spatial, ecophysiological, chemical, functional, evolutionary and cultural traits that are likely to characterise useful plants and their resilience in the next century. Using this framework, we consider a range of possible pathways for future human use of plants. These are centred on two trade-offs: i) diversification versus specialization in the range of species we utilize, and ii) substitution of the species towards those better suited to future climate versus facilitating adaptation in our existing suite of dominant useful plants. In the coming century, major challenges to agriculture and biodiversity will be dominated by increased climatic variation, shifting species ranges, disruption to biotic interactions, nutrient limitation and emerging pests and pathogens. These challenges must be mitigated, whilst enhancing sustainable production to meet the needs of a growing population and a more resource intensive standard of living. With the continued erosion of biodiversity, our future ability to choose among these pathways and trade-offs is likely to be diminished.
KW - biodiversity
KW - climate change
KW - conservation
KW - crop breeding
KW - crop wild relatives
KW - domestication
KW - food security
KW - medicinal plants
KW - resilience
KW - sustainable development
KW - UKRI
KW - BBSRC
KW - BB/P02307X/1
KW - NERC
KW - NE/M021351/1
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85072217367&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://uobrep.openrepository.com/handle/10547/623442
UR - https://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/25025/
U2 - 10.1016/j.envexpbot.2019.103872
DO - 10.1016/j.envexpbot.2019.103872
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85072217367
SN - 0098-8472
VL - 170
JO - Environmental and Experimental Botany
JF - Environmental and Experimental Botany
M1 - 103872
ER -