The development of a simplified model for urban flood risk mitigation in developing countries

The prevalence of flooding in the world in recent times has arguably been unprecedented. It is particularly challenging for developing countries such as Nigeria, where the hazard is often poorly understood and understudied. With predictions of worse future scenarios, it is important to develop integrated approaches - which include flood modelling and vulnerability assessment - aimed at assisting human populations to cope with the hazard. This paper presents an ongoing research into flood risk mitigation in the Lagos metropolis of Nigeria. Maps of social vulnerability index, and land cover of the area have been produced. The results tend to show that two-thirds of the study area may be classed as highly vulnerable to the hazard, with Ajeromi-Ifeledun local government area, most vulnerable. Rapid urbanization tends to expose a wider population to flood risk as new developments are increasingly being put up in flood-prone areas. While this research is at a relatively early stage, the interim results will inform flood risk mitigation efforts in the study area.