The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: the Scottish case

Georgios Marios Chrysanthou; María Dolores Guilló

doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.06.003

The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: the Scottish case

Georgios Marios Chrysanthou, María Dolores Guilló

University of Alicante

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Abstract

We explore the dynamics of the Scottish National Party (SNP) support using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) during 1999-06. We study the relative importance of political sentiments and egocentric economic evaluations by disentangling the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity by gender. Egocentric economic evaluations constitute an important determinant of SNP support over the entire period, being this effect stronger among the male electorate. The results are consistent with the electors holding the incumbent Labour Party accountable for their personal financial situation, though financial security augments the nationalist propensity among partisan voters. Furthermore, retrospective economic evaluations form a significant determinant of incumbent Labour Party support in both the 1999-02 and 2003-06 intervening electoral cycles.

Original language	English
Journal	European Journal of Political Economy
Early online date	23 Jun 2017
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.06.003
Publication status	Early online - 23 Jun 2017

Keywords

egocentric economic evaluation
political preferences
unobserved heterogeneity
voting

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10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.06.003

CHRYSANTHOU_2018_cright_EJPE_The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluationsAccepted author manuscript (Post-print), 498 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0176268016302774

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abstract = "We explore the dynamics of the Scottish National Party (SNP) support using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) during 1999-06. We study the relative importance of political sentiments and egocentric economic evaluations by disentangling the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity by gender. Egocentric economic evaluations constitute an important determinant of SNP support over the entire period, being this effect stronger among the male electorate. The results are consistent with the electors holding the incumbent Labour Party accountable for their personal financial situation, though financial security augments the nationalist propensity among partisan voters. Furthermore, retrospective economic evaluations form a significant determinant of incumbent Labour Party support in both the 1999-02 and 2003-06 intervening electoral cycles. ",

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N2 - We explore the dynamics of the Scottish National Party (SNP) support using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) during 1999-06. We study the relative importance of political sentiments and egocentric economic evaluations by disentangling the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity by gender. Egocentric economic evaluations constitute an important determinant of SNP support over the entire period, being this effect stronger among the male electorate. The results are consistent with the electors holding the incumbent Labour Party accountable for their personal financial situation, though financial security augments the nationalist propensity among partisan voters. Furthermore, retrospective economic evaluations form a significant determinant of incumbent Labour Party support in both the 1999-02 and 2003-06 intervening electoral cycles.

AB - We explore the dynamics of the Scottish National Party (SNP) support using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) during 1999-06. We study the relative importance of political sentiments and egocentric economic evaluations by disentangling the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity by gender. Egocentric economic evaluations constitute an important determinant of SNP support over the entire period, being this effect stronger among the male electorate. The results are consistent with the electors holding the incumbent Labour Party accountable for their personal financial situation, though financial security augments the nationalist propensity among partisan voters. Furthermore, retrospective economic evaluations form a significant determinant of incumbent Labour Party support in both the 1999-02 and 2003-06 intervening electoral cycles.

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KW - political preferences

KW - unobserved heterogeneity

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M3 - Article

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JO - European Journal of Political Economy

JF - European Journal of Political Economy

ER -

The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: the Scottish case

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Keywords

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