Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

Zafer Dilaver; Lester C. Hunt

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.043

Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

Zafer Dilaver^*, Lester C. Hunt

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	6686-6696
Number of pages	11
Journal	Energy
Volume	36
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.043
Publication status	Published - 2011

Keywords

Energy demand modelling and future scenarios
Structural time series model (STSM)
Turkish aggregate electricity demand

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.043

Cite this

@article{ac47636ea64a41d4a423ac672cc9b11b,

title = "Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020",

abstract = "This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.",

keywords = "Energy demand modelling and future scenarios, Structural time series model (STSM), Turkish aggregate electricity demand",

author = "Zafer Dilaver and Hunt, {Lester C.}",

year = "2011",

doi = "10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.043",

language = "English",

volume = "36",

pages = "6686--6696",

journal = "Energy",

issn = "0360-5442",

publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Turkish aggregate electricity demand

T2 - An outlook to 2020

AU - Dilaver, Zafer

AU - Hunt, Lester C.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

AB - This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

KW - Energy demand modelling and future scenarios

KW - Structural time series model (STSM)

KW - Turkish aggregate electricity demand

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80655127672&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.043

DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.043

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:80655127672

SN - 0360-5442

VL - 36

SP - 6686

EP - 6696

JO - Energy

JF - Energy

IS - 11

ER -

Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this