Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

Zafer Dilaver*, Lester C. Hunt

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6686-6696
Number of pages11
JournalEnergy
Volume36
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Keywords

  • Energy demand modelling and future scenarios
  • Structural time series model (STSM)
  • Turkish aggregate electricity demand

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