Uncertainty management in reservoir engineering

Reza Yousefzadeh*, Alireza Kazemi, Mohammad Ahmadi, Jebraeel Gholinezhad

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)peer-review

Abstract

Almost all activities in real life entail different kinds of uncertainty. From daily decisions to complicated problems, such as petroleum reservoir characterization, suffer from uncertainties. Uncertainty can have different roots, including incomplete observation of the system, incomplete modeling of the system because of our limited knowledge and understanding of the underlying mechanisms and rules of the system, intrinsic uncertainty in the system, and inaccurate measurement of the system’s parameters. The first step to deal with uncertainty is to recognize its root and type. This chapter introduces different types of uncertainty in reservoir engineering, challenges induced by uncertainty, and common ways to treat them. Two general approaches to handle the uncertainty are described, named forward uncertainty management and inverse uncertainty management. Forward uncertainty management tries to propagate the uncertainty from inputs to the output(s) to make robust decisions regarding the problem understudy. On the other hand, inverse uncertainty management deals with calibrating model parameters to reduce the range of uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIntroduction to Geological Uncertainty Management in Reservoir Characterization and Optimization
Subtitle of host publicationRobust Optimization and History Matching
PublisherSpringer
Pages1-14
Number of pages14
Edition1st
ISBN (Electronic)9783031280795
ISBN (Print)9783031280788
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 Apr 2023

Publication series

NameSpringerBriefs in Petroleum Geoscience and Engineering
PublisherSpringer
ISSN (Print)2509-3126
ISSN (Electronic)2509-3134

Keywords

  • Bayesian framework
  • field development
  • geological uncertainty
  • history matching
  • reservoir engineering
  • robust optimization
  • uncertainty

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