Using ratio-weighted sums to project data into future scenarios: the case study of heating systems

Carefully planning the future of the building sector is key to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The largest contributor of the building sector to GHG emissions is the energy used for space and water heating. Therefore, information on its possible future evolutions can be very valuable. Future scenarios can be used to investigate the behaviour of existing data into the future. Here, electricity demand data are projected into four distinct futures of the household's use of electric heating systems. These projections offer, however, only partial information about the possible evolutions of the residential energy demand, as they account only for changes in the type of heating systems used. This information could, together with a range of other projections, be used to improve the planning of the future residential sector.