TY - JOUR
T1 - VAR model training using particle swarm optimisation: evidence from macro-finance data
AU - Filis, G.
AU - Kentzoglanakis, Kyriakos
AU - Floros, Christos
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - This paper examines the empirical relationship between CPI, oil prices, stock market and unemployment in EU15 using a new computational approach. In particular, we propose a novel approach to train the well-known vector autoregressive (VAR) model using a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) method. Results demonstrate that PSO succeeds in training the model parameters. Furthermore, as the prediction error is found to be low, this strengthens the validity and usability of PSO as a model training method. The empirical results suggest that oil is an important determinant of CPI and stock market changes. Oil price changes affect CPI positively and stock market
negatively. Finally, we report no evidence that CPI and unemployment have a negative effect on stock market performance.
AB - This paper examines the empirical relationship between CPI, oil prices, stock market and unemployment in EU15 using a new computational approach. In particular, we propose a novel approach to train the well-known vector autoregressive (VAR) model using a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) method. Results demonstrate that PSO succeeds in training the model parameters. Furthermore, as the prediction error is found to be low, this strengthens the validity and usability of PSO as a model training method. The empirical results suggest that oil is an important determinant of CPI and stock market changes. Oil price changes affect CPI positively and stock market
negatively. Finally, we report no evidence that CPI and unemployment have a negative effect on stock market performance.
U2 - 10.1504/IJCEE.2009.029150
DO - 10.1504/IJCEE.2009.029150
M3 - Article
SN - 1757-1189
VL - 1
SP - 9
EP - 22
JO - International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics
JF - International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics
IS - 1
ER -