What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom

Alan Collins, C. Hand, Martin Snell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable attributes within an OLS model. We adopt De Vany and Walls' approach and transform the revenue data into a binary variable and estimate the probability that a film's revenue will exceed a given threshold value; in other words, the probability of a blockbuster. Furthermore, we provide a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)343-354
Number of pages12
JournalManagerial & Decision Economics
Volume23
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2002

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