Abstract
In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable attributes within an OLS model. We adopt De Vany and Walls' approach and transform the revenue data into a binary variable and estimate the probability that a film's revenue will exceed a given threshold value; in other words, the probability of a blockbuster. Furthermore, we provide a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 343-354 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Managerial & Decision Economics |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Sept 2002 |