Abstract
The mainstream economic narrative often portrays climate mitigation as inherently costly, despite proven inaccuracies. This PhD thesis by Publication introduces an alternative framework, E3ME-FTT (Energy- Environment-Economy Macro-Econometrics and Future Technology Transformation), that challenges this notion. By abandoning equilibrium assumptions and incorporating endogenous technology, the research reveals diverse outcomes from climate actions, emphasising both economic opportunities and the importance of careful risk management for potentially disadvantaged sectors and countries in the low- carbon transition.This collection of papers utilises the E3ME-FTT framework to offer insights into climate mitigation. Theme 1 explores the framework's technical aspects, showcasing its ability to capture observed behaviours and address uncertainties in energy technology diffusion. This theme evaluates the impacts of climate and sector-specific decarbonisation policies and introduces FTT-FLEX (FTT-Flexible), a technology diffusion tool for low emitters and data-poor countries.
The geopolitical implications of decarbonisation, revealing economic impacts of stranded fossil-fuel assets and incentives for global stakeholders in climate policy actions are presented in Theme 2. It provides insights into the economic implications of global decarbonisation efforts and the evolving energy-economic geopolitical landscape.
Theme 3 discusses green recovery, emphasising short-term economic stimulus for long-term sustainability through the diffusion of low-carbon technologies. It specifically examines the impact of green stimulus policies in the aftermath of COVID-19 and the Great Recession.
Finally, Theme 4 examines the low-carbon transition in Asia. It showcases positive economic and job outcomes, sectoral effects, and distributional impacts of low-carbon policies in Japan and similar analyses in other East Asia regions. It also demonstrates the framework's adaptability to model subnational impacts of climate policies in India.
The E3ME-FTT framework stands as the world's leading simulation-based tool for understanding climate policy impacts at regional, sectoral, technological, and socioeconomic levels. These applications demonstrate its versatility, already informing real-world policymaking with an alternative approach to the traditional paradigm.
| Date of Award | 25 Sept 2024 |
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| Original language | English |
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| Supervisor | Scott Mahadeo (Supervisor) & Georgios Magkonis (Supervisor) |