Protest to Policy

: Canadian Attitudes Towards Environmental Protest

Abstract

This thesis investigates how Canadians evaluate violent environmental protest in the context of the oil and gas sector, and develops a predictive model of public support for escalating protest tactics. Drawing on an adapted Oreg and Katz-Gerro (2006) framework that integrates elements of the Theory of Planned Behaviour, Value-Belief-Norm theory, and the Social Identity Model of Collective Action, the study focuses not on activists’ intentions but on third-party acceptance of violent environmental protest. A cross-sectional online survey of 409 Canadian residents, distributed in May 2023, combined established environmental attitude and behaviour measures with five experimental vignette scenarios depicting protests ranging from non-violent disruption to violent attacks on oil and gas infrastructure and government property. Principal component analysis yielded eight reliable factors, which were then entered into a stepwise multiple-regression model predicting acceptance of violent protester behaviour.
The final model explained 56% of the variance in support for violent protest. Personal willingness to sacrifice for the environment was the strongest single predictor, accounting for 27% of the variance, while the combined effects of environmental concern and control, perceived threat, prior activism, scenario-based evaluations, and younger age substantially increased predictive power. Across scenarios, most respondents rejected tactics involving property damage, explosives, or lethal risk. However, approximately one-third expressed indifference or support for the most violent scenario, indicating a non-trivial minority willing to tolerate extreme environmental protest. The findings show that the same deep environmental commitment that motivates pro-environmental behaviour can, under certain conditions, extend to support for violent protest behaviours. This study contributes a Canada-specific,
policy-relevant model that can help inform government, law enforcement, and industry efforts to assess protest-related risks, and design interventions that channel ecological concern into non-violent forms of civic engagement.

Date of Award	20 May 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	University of Portsmouth
Supervisor	Paul Gilmour (Supervisor) & Busra Nisa Sarac (Supervisor)