AbstractIn recent years, because of the extraordinary growth speed and the pace of development with the high yield of investment, China, is playing one of the most important strategic roles on the world economic stage. The position and standing of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, has been one of the most popular and continuous topic discussing throughout the world. China has for a long time complained about the manipulation of exchange rates of its currency Renminbi, citing the raising of these issues by multilateral forums such as IMF and the G20, who urge China to raise RMB rates. However, the reactions and attitude of Beijing have been unpredictable. In the empirical researches of the Chinese currency, there is hardly any which attempt to quantify the situation. It is therefore important and necessary to fill this research gap by establishing econometric models for forecasting the future trends of the Renminbi. This PhD research focuses on forecasting the future trends of Chinese currency based on an analysis of Chinese exchange markets and the macroeconomic environments.
This research focuses on analysing the Chinese foreign trade, exchange market, policies, currency prices both qualitatively and quantitatively, to try to find out what are the connections between micro and macroeconomic phenomena and estimating them with economic models, in order to forecast exchange rate trends and the future state of financial markets.
This study will start by giving an introduction to the Chinese monetary system and foreign exchange markets at different time periods. Through the research, significant relationships of currency prices, foreign trade exports, foreign direct investments and the GDP have been found. When real effective real exchange rates rise, the forecast of net export in the future 5 years will fall, so will the foreign direct investments. At the same time, it will stimulate increases on GDP and domestic demands. These study also researches on global credit and financial crisis occurred in 2008 followed by a long-term global range recession and find out the essential reason of it was global imbalances between the economies of eastern and western countries.
|Date of Award||2012|
|Supervisor||Guy Judge (Supervisor) & Mike Asteris (Supervisor)|