Portsmouth Business School’s military manpower forecasting model was developed with the Royal Navy to provide medium and long-term manpower projections. The Naval Manning Agency has used this model since 2000. Further research using the model established that a proposed housing scheme was unviable; led to revised inflation forecasts being used in the planning process; and contributed to the integration of the Regular Service and the Reserve. A tri-service manpower model has also been developed by the Defence Analytical Services Agency (DASA) to improve the analytical rigour of military manpower planning in the light of continuing defence budget cuts.
Royal Navy; Armed Forces; Defence Analytical Services Agency.
The ‘Portsmouth’ model, employed by the Naval Manning Agency, ‘has been found to be surprisingly accurate even in the short term’. This has had two consequences. First, it has enabled the RN to modify policy to realise labour efficiency cost-savings. Secondly, it has enabled DASA (Defence Analytical Services Agency, the agency responsible for providing defence statistics and policy advice to the government and the armed forces) to provide more accurate tri-service manpower predictions over the medium-long term.