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Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.
Original languageEnglish
JournalApplied Economics
Early online date4 Sep 2019
DOIs
Publication statusEarly online - 4 Sep 2019

Documents

  • GAUSDEN_2019_cright_AE_Comparative Performances of Measures of Consumer and Economic Sentiment in Forecasting Consumption

    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Economics on 04 September 2019, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00036846.2019.1659489

    Accepted author manuscript (Post-print), 662 KB, PDF document

    Due to publisher’s copyright restrictions, this document is not freely available to download from this website until: 4/03/21

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